With ski resorts set to open across the U.S., skiers and snowboarders—and the entire winter sports industry—are turning their attention to the snow forecast.
After a summer of extreme weather, University of Vermont experts shared their insights on how climate change and El Niño are expected to impact snow on Vermont’s iconic ski hills and across the U.S. Northeast this winter.
How is climate change impacting winter in the U.S. Northeast?
The Vermont Climate Assessment shows our climate is getting warmer, wetter, and more variable—especially in winter. These trends are similar across most of the Northeast. In Vermont, winter temperatures have increased 2.5 times faster than our average annual temperatures. Snow seasons are getting shorter and starting later. The number of days in Vermont without freezing has jumped by three weeks since 1960.
Snowfall has actually increased in Vermont over the last century. There’s been a 21% increase in precipitation since 1900. Much of that falls as rain, but our winters still get snowstorms and snow. The issue is that our snowfall and temperatures are more variable. We are seeing more sunny days above freezing throughout winter, which causes the snow to melt periodically—it's harder for the snow to pile up. Instead of a stable snowpack from November to March, the new normal is freeze-thaw-freeze-thaw, which is causing issues not only for winter sports—but also in other sectors, like agriculture and winter nutrient runoff.
—¶¶Òõ̽̽ Prof. Gillian Galford
How is climate change affecting the ski industry and snow sports?
The primary way that ski resorts are adapting to climate change is by increasing snowmaking and snow storage. But many resorts are also diversifying—investing in water parks, restaurants, spas, bike trails, indoor skating rinks, and more—to become year-round attractions.
With snowmaking, downhill skiing can likely remain viable in Vermont for several decades in our current climate scenarios. In the short term, Vermont’s ski hills may fare alright while precipitation is increasing and temperatures remain below freezing. But after approximately 2050, it’s more of a question mark. By 2080, our research shows that the Vermont ski season will be shortened by one month (under a high emissions scenario) or by two weeks (under a low emissions scenario).
Other winter sports are experiencing climate impacts. Snowmobiling, ice fishing, and pond hockey all require a certain amount of snow or ice. Last year, we saw some tournaments postponed or canceled because of a lack of snow or ice.
—¶¶Òõ̽̽ Prof. Gillian Galford
How can we expect El Niño to impact skiing this year?
El Niño occurs every few years and affects weather worldwide. It’s a global climate pattern with warmer ocean temperatures where the trade wind directions change. NOAA data shows that —not always, but often. So it’s reasonable to expect a warmer year, on average, given El Nino and longer-term warming trends, generally.
Science shows that Vermont’s climate is also getting wetter. So the big question is around precipitation this winter—and whether it falls as snow or rain. This depends on how many days we string together in a row below freezing. It also depends on . But if a significant portion of our precipitation dumps as snow, we could still see some good skiing this year. It’s just too early to predict.
—¶¶Òõ̽̽ Prof. Beverley Wemple
Can we improve snow forecasting?
The ¶¶Òõ̽̽ CIROH team is working with to improve our ability to forecast floods, snowfall, and the water quality impacts of changing winter conditions. As part of this national effort, we are adding sensors and monitoring stations in watersheds across the U.S. In the meantime, our best forecasts tend to be at the 10-day scale, the sort we get on our standard weather apps. Ski hill snowcams can help, too. Building capacity to improve water forecasting at the seasonal scale is an important challenge that is very much on the horizon.
—¶¶Òõ̽̽ Prof. Beverley Wemple
How is climate change causing snow to change?
Our new Shore to Summit (S2S) project is exploring this question. We’ve created the largest network of sensors in Vermont to provide the most accurate snow conditions in real-time across the state, from Lake Champlain in Burlington to Mount Mansfield and Stowe and east to Danville, Vermont—22 stations across roughly 60 miles. The sensors are tracking snow depth, snowpack water content, soil moisture, temperatures, sun and wind conditions, and more. The project will also use machine learning and drone technologies, including state-of-the-art optical and LiDAR sensors to detect snow extent and snow depth, drawing on the expertise of ¶¶Òõ̽̽’s to improve our understanding of snowpack dynamics.
One of our goals is to make accurate, up-to-the-minute, local readings of Vermont snow conditions publicly available by winter 2024. This project will monitor and analyze snow, but the richness of our data should help future snow forecasting and our understanding of how weather changes brought about by climate change are impacting snow.
—¶¶Òõ̽̽ Prof. Arne Bomblies
Gillian Galford, Beverley Wemple, and Arne Bomblies are researchers in ¶¶Òõ̽̽’s Gund Institute for Environment, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, College of Arts and Sciences, and College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences.
MEDIA CONTACT
Basil Waugh
Gund Institute For Environment
University of Vermont
Tel: 802.656.8369
Email: basil.waugh@uvm.edu
